While a negative trend was observed in global markets yesterday after the concerns about the Omicron variant and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's statement that they would discuss accelerating the tapering at the December meeting, the manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) to be announced worldwide today. ADP employment report to be published in the USA will be followed.
Concerns about the Omicron variant in the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) epidemic continue to be at the top of the agenda with different explanations about the effectiveness of existing vaccines.
US pharmaceutical company Moderna Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Stephane Bancel, said yesterday that a new vaccine against the Omicron variant should be developed, which could take months. While it was stated by BioNTech-Pfizer that Omicron also carries a risk of infection for vaccinated people, but the current vaccine will likely continue to provide strong protection against a serious disease, it was reported that there should be no panic and the two-week evaluation process will be critical.
In an environment of increasing concerns about inflation, developments regarding the future of monetary policies are also closely followed. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell answered questions from members on the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee of the U.S. Senate yesterday. Stating that he thinks the risk of higher inflation has increased and that it is time to put aside the assessment that inflation is "temporary", Powell said, "The economy is very strong and inflationary pressures are high. Therefore, it would be appropriate to consider completing the reduction in asset purchases, which we announced at the November meeting, maybe a few months ago. In a few weeks." I hope we will discuss this at our next meeting." said.
After Powell's statements, while selling pressures accelerated in the stock markets, it was seen that the demand for the dollar increased and the interest rates i
On the European side, concerns about the Omicron variant continued to be influential in the course of the indices yesterday. The FTSE MIB 30 index closed down 0.87 percent. On the other hand, according to the data released yesterday, annual inflation in the Eurozone reached 4.9 percent in November, the highest level of the last 25 years. Although the euro/dollar parity decreased rapidly with Powell's statements and saw 1.1240, it closed the day above 1.13 percent. While the pair is moving around 1.1330 levels today, European index futures contracts started the day with buyers.
According to the data announced on the Asian side today, the manufacturing industry PMI in Japan for November was revised from 54.2 to 54.5, pointing to an expansion for the 10th consecutive month. Manufacturing industry PMI in China, on the other hand, decreased by 0.7 points to 49.9 in November compared to the previous month. Data that fell short of expectations fell into contraction territory for the second time since April 2020, amid rising case numbers and weak demand. It is noteworthy that the new day started positive on the Asian side after the data, while the Nikkei 225 index in Japan is 0.7 percent, Shanghai composite index is 0.05 percent in China, Hang Seng index is 1.1 percent in Hong Kong and South Korea is close to the closing. de Kospi index is watching with an increase of 2.2 percent.
On the commodity side, the ounce price of gold, which saw over $1,808 with the statements of Moderna yesterday, dropped to $1,771 with the effect of the rise in the dollar after Powell's guidance. While the price of ounce of gold increased by $ 1,781 today, the price of Brent oil per barrel is trading at $ 71.0 with an increase of 2.1 percent, after seeing the lowest level in 3 months with $ 67.5 yesterday.
Analysts stated that the concerns about the effect of the Omicron variant on the economy and Powell's hawk statements, pointing out that bond purchases could be terminated before expected, caused pressure on the markets, and said that the news flow about the Kovid-19 outbreak would have an impact on investor decisions.
Analysts, who stated that more clues about the course of monetary policies will be sought in Fed Chairman Powell's assessments at the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, said that on the data side, ADP private sector employment in the USA and the Fed's Beige Data as well as global manufacturing industry PMI data. He stated that the Book Report would follow.
Analysts stated that technically, the BIST 100 index is at 1.830 resistance and 1.730 points as support.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, November manufacturing PMI
11.55 Germany, November manufacturing PMI
12.00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI for November
12.30 UK manufacturing PMI for November
16.15 US, November ADP employment report
17.45 US, November manufacturing PMI
18.00 US, Speech by Fed Chairman Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen
18.00 US, November ISM manufacturing PMI
22.00 US, Fed's Beige Book Report
n the bond market decreased.
With these developments, the Dow Jones index fell by 1.86 percent, the S&P 500 index by 1.90 percent and the Nasdaq index by 1.55 percent yesterday in the New York stock market. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped by 2.1 points in November compared to the previous month, to 109.5, the lowest level in 9 months. The dollar index, which was over 96.6 yesterday, is flat at 95.9 today. The 10-year bond yield of the USA, on the other hand, dropped from 1.52 percent yesterday and was below 1.42 percent, while it was stabilized at around 1.48% today. It is seen that the new day started positively in the index futures contracts of the USA.
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