China's steel exports in 2025 are projected to reach between 90 and 100 million tons, a decline from the 110 million tons expected in 2024. Despite this reduction, export volumes are anticipated to remain at historically high levels as the country continues to manage overcapacity and weak domestic demand.
Domestic steel consumption in China has been affected by economic instability and issues in the real estate sector, leading to oversupply. With production costs lower than many competitors, Chinese steelmakers have capitalized by exporting excess steel at competitive prices. In 2023, steel exports reached 90.3 million tons, and by September 2024, exports had already risen to 80.7 million tons, an increase of 21.2% y-o-y.
The outlook for 2025 remains strong, with key players like Baoshan Iron & Steel planning to increase shipments, driven by growing global steel demand. However, the surge in Chinese steel exports has led to trade tensions, with countries such as Turkey and Indonesia imposing anti-dumping duties. In 2023, a total of 28 trade lawsuits were filed against Chinese steel products, a trend expected to continue in 2025.
Another challenge for China’s steel exports is the government's crackdown on value-added tax evasion, which affected about a third of steel exports in 2023. Authorities are investigating illegal export practices to enforce compliance.
Despite these obstacles, analysts believe Chinese producers will continue to find pricing strategies that keep them competitive in the global market. China’s steel output in 2023 reached 1.019 billion tons, a slight increase of 0.6% from 2022, signaling stable production and solid global demand for Chinese steel.
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