According to the report published by Allianz Trade, the main risk factors that the metals sector in Türkiye may face include economic conditions, global metal prices, regulatory changes, energy costs, raw material supply, environmental concerns and lack of talent in the workforce. However, among these, environmental concerns are seen on a remarkable scale.
In the report, which evaluates the metal sector in Türkiye, nearly 150 thousand people are employed in nearly 31 thousand workplaces in the Turkish metal sector. It was reported that the global metal market increased from $ 3940.17 billion in 2022 to $ 4230.27 billion in 2023 with a compound annual growth rate of 7.4 per cent.
While it is emphasised that the Russia-Ukraine war has negatively affected the chances of global economic recovery in the short term, it is stated that the war has led to economic sanctions against multiple countries, an increase in commodity prices and supply chain disruptions. Another noteworthy point in the report is that global metal prices have approached pre-pandemic prices due to shrinking demand, recession expectations and monetary tightening.
International trade will change with green transformation
International trade is expected to undergo a change due to the increasing demand for green transformation worldwide. The report also draws attention to the fact that countries have started to implement their climate and environmental decisions in the field of international trade and industry, which strengthens the concerns that possible foreign trade restrictive practices will increase.
Germany's technical recession has a negative impact on Türkiye's metal sector
Türkiye's export data showed an increase of 12.9 per cent compared to the previous year with 254.2 billion dollars at the end of 2022. Exports of the Ferrous and Non-Ferrous Metals sector increased by 16.8 percent in the January-December period of 2022 compared to the same period of the previous year and amounted to 14.66 billion dollars. In the report, it is pointed out that despite the 0.2 percent increase in exports in the first 5 months of this year, exports of Ferrous and Non-Ferrous Metals sector decreased by 16.4 percent compared to the same period of the previous year. This decrease is attributed to the economic contraction in the European Union, the monetary tightening cycle, the lack of a competitive exchange rate in Türkiye and the tightening in credit conditions compared to last year. In addition, it is emphasised that the technical recession in Germany, which has the largest share in Türkiye's ferrous and non-ferrous metals exports, has greatly affected the Turkish metal sector.
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