In the flat steel sector, the expected increase was realized after the announcement that the bottom had been reached. In the global market, the upward movement continued with a €50 increase following the news that ArcelorMittal is preparing to raise HRC prices to €680/ton for January orders in Northern Europe. The sequential increases in the global market prompted Turkish producers to cut the discount option on their prices and raise them.
In the first half of October, international experts expected a rise in hot rolled coil prices in the US market. The figures for the US reached a minimum of $640-670.
Tentative agreements between the United Auto Workers (UAW) and the Big 3 carmakers Ford, General Motors (GM) and Stellantis led to increased demand from plants that were previously on strike.
The European hot rolled market also hit a low of $580-620. After these developments, European producers gained a big advantage. In the US, after the strikes ended, automakers went back to work on production and interest rates were prevented from rising to 5.25-5.50%. All these developments provided a favorable backdrop for hot rolled coil (HRC) and semi-finished products prices to rise.
Experts informed SteelRadar analysts that November deadlines have been completed and December orders will be filled in a very short time. At this point, the crucial question came. What about stock sales? If the market accepts this price and purchases continue at the same pace, better days are ahead for hot rolled coil. But the direction of prices is not yet sharply defined.
In Europe, offers from integrated producers in the region have approached €680 ($722) per ton ex-works. The latest deals for HRC for December delivery were reported at €620-630 per ton ex-works.
In Italy, offers for December delivery of coil were heard in the market at €600-620 per ton ex-works.
In Northwest Europe, deals for small tonnages were heard at €660/mt ex-works.
Many of the producers, who have been trying to lower raw material prices for a long time, carried out repair works ahead of schedule during planned and unplanned production shutdowns. It is estimated that it will take around three months for the market to recover to the expected momentum.
Ultimately, the key issue will be what price buyers will accept.
Hot rolled coil price forecasts in global markets;
Europe - thought to target $650 to $750.
Asia - may try to increase from $560 to $660.
USA - targeting $920 from $820.
Hot rolled coil prices increased in the Turkish domestic market as well as in the producer and spot markets
Black Sea Producer; bidding at $660-670. (December orders started to fill up. Will start January delivery orders in the near future)
Aegean Region Producer; bidding at $650. (The bottom figure was heard as $640. There is a serious increase in demand. Approximately 40,000/t demand was heard the other day).
Marmara Region Producer; bids at $650. (Preparing for January delivery orders).
Türkiye spot market HRC prices;
Aegean Region; $680 was accepted as the bottom level.
Iskenderun Region; $670 was accepted as the bottom level.
Marmara Region; $670 was accepted as the low level.
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